How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
Sunday, August 30, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Russian strike on a Ukrainian warehouse kills 37 in the war’s deadliest attack this year - The Seattle Times
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
- Russian strike on a Ukrainian warehouse kills 37 in the war's deadliest attack this year - Oskaloosa Herald
- Ukraine War, Day 1,648: Kyiv Strikes More Warehouses Inside Russia - EA WorldView
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 18.5% | ▲ +1.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | ▲ +2.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 15.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 17.5% | ▲ +2.0 |
| Who will Donald Trump talk to this month? — Vladimir Putin | 10.0% | ▼ -6.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Mapping the Iran war’s strikes on Gulf energy – and what comes next for oil - Al Jazeera
- Iran War Adds $330 Billion to Global Energy Import Bill - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- WATCH: IDF kills Hamas-linked former senior Jenin terror cell member in West Bank vehicle strike - The Jerusalem Post
- Israeli settlers stage new attack on home in West Bank's Qusra, witnesses say - Reuters
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 32.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 99.4% | ▲ +0.7 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | — |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 12.0% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$769.28
-0.25% today
· +0.48% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$232.88
-0.58% today
· -1.9% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$563.95
-0.34% today
· +0.05% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$211.71
-0.19% today
· +0.87% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$408.84
-3.26% today
· -3.43% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$129.69
-0.23% today
· -3.68% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$28.0
+2.87% today
· +10.09% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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