How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
Sunday, August 23, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia's drone strike on a Kryvyi Rih shopping center kills 15 and wounds 130, then a second wave hits the rescuers.
- Russia launches a second wave of strikes on Ukraine, killing at least 2 people a day after the shopping center attack.
- Ukraine's President Zelenskyy vows to respond to Russia's deadly shopping center attack.
- Russian strikes kill 6 people in Ukraine, a day after the shopping center attack.
- China is squeezing India out of Russia's oil trade, according to a report by OilPrice.com.
The escalation of the conflict and potential impact on oil trade may have implications for global energy markets, but no specific information is available in the provided news items.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 20.5% | ▼ -1.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 15.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 52.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy departure announced? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2.0% | new |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Iran's new security chief warns neighboring countries that joining the US economic war will be considered 'enemies'.
- Iraqi oil tankers have been given permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran threatens to strike US companies after Trump declares economic war.
- Israel's Syria strike may have been a bid to provoke a Turkey conflict, a US envoy says.
- Jordan is caught in the crossfire of the Iran-US-Israel war.
The escalating tensions in the Middle East and the threat of a Hormuz crisis could have significant implications for global oil prices and energy markets.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 36.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 96.8% | ▲ +1.3 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | — |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.4% | ▼ -0.1 |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 10.0% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.