How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Saturday, August 22, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Saturday, August 22, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia's drone strike on a Kryvyi Rih shopping center kills 15 and wounds 130, then a second wave hits the rescuers.
- A Russian attack kills at least 2 in Ukraine, a day after a deadly mall attack.
- Ukrainian President Zelenskyy vows response to Russia's deadly shopping centre attack.
- Russian strikes on Ukraine kill two, officials say, a day after a deadly attack on a mall.
- China is squeezing India out of Russia's oil trade.
The disruption to Russia's oil trade and fuel supply may impact global energy markets.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Which leaders will leave office this year? — Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 11.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 22.0% | ▲ +0.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 14.5% | ▼ -3.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 51.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
China rejects US call to support economic sanctions on Iran.
- The number of troops injured in the Middle East since the start of the Iran war has surpassed 750.
- Iranian oil supply to China is rapidly drying up.
- Oil prices are little changed after Iran's president indicated Tehran wants the war to end soon.
- The US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in its first move since the Iran war spiked oil prices.
The US Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady suggests that the Fed is not yet concerned about the impact of the Iran war on the US economy, but the ongoing conflict and its effects on oil prices and gl
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 37.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 95.5% | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | — |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.5% | ▼ -0.3 |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 10.0% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$765.64
+0.4% today
· -1.37% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$237.38
-0.04% today
· -6.27% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$563.65
-1.39% today
· -7.37% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$209.88
-1.2% today
· -5.87% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$423.37
+1.95% today
· +5.46% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$134.65
+0.09% today
· +6.33% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$25.43
+0.14% today
· +1.84% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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