How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Monday, August 24, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Monday, August 24, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia has published a video of a drone strike that killed an unarmed cyclist in the Donetsk region.
- Russia has used AI-powered drones made by Nvidia in its military operations.
- The Institute for the Study of War has reported on the ongoing Russian Offensive Campaign in Ukraine.
- Russia has struck Kyiv with ballistic missiles ahead of Ukraine's Independence Day.
- A fuel crisis in Russia could potentially help end the war in Ukraine, according to DW.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 21.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 16.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 8.5% | ▼ -5.0 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy departure announced? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2.0% | — |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Iran threatens to strike US bases across Europe if countries aid attacks.
- Iran Unveils Huge New Gas Discovery Amid U.S. Economic Pressure.
- Oil Prices Slip Before US Unveils Fresh Iran Sanctions, Brent Nears $93.
- Hormuz Tanker Traffic Slumps as U.S. and Iran Trade Threats.
- Indian shares extend cautious trade on concerns over Iran sanctions.
Oil prices slipped ahead of fresh US sanctions on Iran, with Brent nearing $93, as investors await the 'toughest' US sanctions on Iran.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 97.3% | ▲ +0.5 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.4% | — |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 10.0% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$765.64
+0.4% today
· -1.37% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$237.38
-0.04% today
· -6.27% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$563.65
-1.39% today
· -7.37% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$209.88
-1.2% today
· -5.87% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$423.37
+1.95% today
· +5.46% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$134.65
+0.09% today
· +6.33% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$25.43
+0.14% today
· +1.84% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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