How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Wednesday, August 26, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
- The U.S. Power Play in Iraq That Moscow and Beijing Didn't See Coming - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Russia Eyes Central Asia as a Safe Haven for Its Defense Industry - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Two killed, refinery on fire in Russia’s Krasnodar after drone attack - Al Jazeera
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 24.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 16.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 14.0% | ▲ +2.5 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 5.5% | new |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Middle East conflicts in K-12 US public schools - The Times of Israel
- Iran war latest: US 'can't get out' of conflict and 'has run out of patience' - Sky News
- US Has No Plans for New Military Strikes on Iran, Focusing Solely on Economic Pressure - Kurdistan24
- Iran's Tanker Blacklist Raises New Risks for Gulf Oil - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 33.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 98.2% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.4% | — |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 11.0% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$765.79
+0.31% today
· -0.21% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$234.35
+0.42% today
· -7.03% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$556.57
-1.24% today
· -8.34% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$210.28
+0.49% today
· -6.75% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$428.06
+0.31% today
· +7.41% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$126.11
-4.6% today
· -3.47% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$25.62
+0.59% today
· +3.77% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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