How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Thursday, August 27, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Russia says it launched a 'massive' overnight strike on 9 Ukrainian cities - Audacy
- CIA chief used Moscow visit to warn Russia against attacks on NATO allies, helping Iran - Politico
- Russia says it could strike UK military targets in response to Ukrainian strikes using British missiles - Reuters
- Ukraine’s drone attacks have left Russia desperately scrambling for oil imports - The Guardian
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 22.0% | ▼ -2.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 16.5% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 20.5% | ▲ +6.5 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 10.5% | ▲ +5.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- CIA chief used Moscow visit to warn Russia against attacks on NATO allies, helping Iran - Politico
- Regional powers seek off-ramp from Iran war, and other Middle East developments - 10TV
- Regional powers seek off-ramp from Iran war, and other Middle East developments - KING5.com
- Regional powers seek off-ramp from Iran war, and other Middle East developments - La Nación
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 32.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 98.3% | ▲ +0.1 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.4% | — |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 11.0% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$765.94
+0.02% today
· -0.41% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$236.5
+0.92% today
· -3.88% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$565.43
+1.59% today
· -4.05% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$211.93
+0.78% today
· -3.85% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$421.33
-1.57% today
· +1.81% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$127.39
+1.01% today
· -2.71% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$27
+5.39% today
· +6.66% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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