How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Thursday, August 13, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Thursday, August 13, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia is accused of a potential war crime after a cluster munition attack on Kyiv.
- A Russian strike sparked a fire at a Ukraine port.
- Ukraine's drone strikes on Russia's Wildberries sent Russia's military gear sales plunging.
- North Korean missiles hit Zaporizhzhia in a deadly attack.
- Russian crude exports dropped to their lowest level since May.
The escalation of the conflict and disruptions to Russian oil exports could lead to further volatility in global energy markets.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Which leaders will leave office this year? — Ramzan Kadyrov | 11.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 26.0% | ▼ -1.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 20.5% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 24.5% | ▲ +0.5 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Iran and the United States continue a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil supplies under pressure
- Brent crude rose above $89 as the U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz persisted
- Ship traffic through the strait fell to its lowest weekly level, reflecting heightened tension
- Gulf oil majors are spending billions to develop alternative routes that bypass the strait
- The Global Supply Chain Volatility Index notes lingering shortages ahead of a possible Hormuz disruption
Higher oil prices and a strong dollar are supporting equities, but the risk of a full Hormuz shutdown keeps market volatility elevated
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 51.0% | ▼ -6.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.8% | ▼ -0.3 |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 11.0% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$772.54
+0.26% today
· +0.36% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$251.56
-0.09% today
· -0.18% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$606.76
+1.54% today
· +5.08% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$222.73
-0.5% today
· +0.18% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$404.8
+0.97% today
· +3.89% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$127.29
-0.22% today
· +10.78% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$24.36
+2.76% today
· +1.23% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
Think the bettors have one of these lines wrong?
Call it on StakeDojo →
Free play-money, real odds, public record.