How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Friday, August 28, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Friday, August 28, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- UK drones used for ‘deep strikes’ in mainland Russia for first time - The Times
- Trump to Axios: I'm not worried Russia will attack NATO - Axios
- Russia threatens strikes on UK military targets, ‘catastrophic consequences’ over Ukraine - Fox News
- Russia bombards Kyiv and other cities in onslaught testing Ukraine’s defenses - AP News
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 19.5% | ▼ -2.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 15.0% | ▼ -1.5 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 19.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy departure announced? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | 3.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Trump’s lack of progress on Iran is beginning to damage Sino-US relations — Phar Kim Beng - Malay Mail
- Six months on, the Iran war has changed the Middle East, but not in the way its architects had hoped - Marietta Daily Journal
- Regional powers seek off-ramp from Iran war, and other Middle East developments - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
- Hormuz Tanker Traffic Drops Despite Recovery in Oil Flows - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 31.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 98.3% | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.4% | — |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 14.0% | ▲ +3.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$771.18
+0.68% today
· +1.12% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$234.23
-0.96% today
· -1.36% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$565.85
+0.07% today
· -1.01% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$212.1
+0.08% today
· -0.15% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$422.62
+0.3% today
· +1.77% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$130
+2.05% today
· -3.37% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$27.21
+0.8% today
· +7.17% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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