How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Monday, August 10, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Monday, August 10, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Ukraine launched a major drone strike on a Russian refining hub, killing 12 people.
- Ukraine's drone strike targeted a major Russian refining hub, causing significant damage.
- Russia and Syria have struck a deal reshaping Moscow's military footprint in the region.
- Russia's labor shortage has worsened due to Central Asian workers staying away.
- Taiwan is testing new 'mid-size' attack drones similar to those used by Ukraine.
The attack on Russia's refining hub could disrupt oil supplies and impact global energy markets.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Which leaders will leave office this year? — Ramzan Kadyrov | 11.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 34.5% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 34.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 21.5% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 27.5% | ▲ +3.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Iran has hardened its demands for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, saying it won't open until the US "corrects" its behavior.
- Iran-aligned Houthis claim they attacked an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia.
- Oil prices have risen as tensions surge after reports of another tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz.
- US stock futures are little changed as investors await inflation data and grapple with more Iran uncertainty.
- Israel has rejected Donald Trump's 15-point plan for Gaza, with Netanyahu saying the plan is not acceptable.
The escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices higher, which could have a negative impact on global economic growth and markets.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 51.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | 99.9% | ▲ +0.5 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | — |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 1.1% | ▼ -0.1 |
| Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel? — Gadi Eisenkot | 61.0% | new |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$773.16
+0.59% today
· +3.53% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$250.74
+0.32% today
· +4.62% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$587.93
+0.88% today
· +0.86% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$223.1
-0.11% today
· +3.66% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$398.47
+2.25% today
· +7.27% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$118.02
-0.71% today
· -8.62% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$23.91
+0.97% today
· +0.44% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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