How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Wednesday, August 12, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Ukraine drone strike deep inside Russia kills 13 and hits a major oil refinery
- Ukraine drones flew 750 miles into Russia, striking an oil hub/refinery and killing 13 people, including a child
- Russia’s refinery crisis forced it to import fuel from India as domestic capacity falters
- Russian crude exports fell to their lowest level since May, after new U.S. sanctions target its oil lifeline
- North Korean missiles struck Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, adding another front to the conflict
The combined hit on Russian refining capacity and export decline tightens global oil supply, bolstering prices and squeezing Russian oil revenues.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Which leaders will leave office this year? — Ramzan Kadyrov | 11.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 27.5% | ▼ -2.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 21.0% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 24.0% | ▼ -0.5 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Maritime attacks around the Strait of Hormuz push Brent crude above $89 as a US‑Iran stalemate deepens
- Houthi missile strike on a Bab al‑Mandeb vessel killed six, the first Red Sea fatalities in over a year (CNBC, Al Jazeera)
- U.S. forces fired on a cargo ship that tried to breach Iran’s blockade, highlighting rising naval confrontations (Al Jazeera)
- Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until its conditions are met, with traffic dropping to just six vessels on Monday (OilPrice.com)
- Brent crude climbed to $89 a barrel while U.S. crude hovered around $82‑$83, reflecting market reaction to the escalating tensions (Crude Oil Prices Today, CNBC)
Rising oil prices boost energy sector earnings and keep inflation concerns alive, while gold steadies near $4,400, putting pressure on risk‑on assets.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 57.0% | ▲ +7.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 1.1% | ▲ +0.1 |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 11.0% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$770.52
-0.32% today
· -0.08% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$251.78
+0.32% today
· +0.56% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$597.59
-0.91% today
· +1.4% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$223.85
-0.14% today
· +2.87% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$400.92
-0.41% today
· +7.16% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$127.57
+1.29% today
· +10.21% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$23.71
-1.23% today
· -0.52% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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