How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Tuesday, August 18, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia warns the UK it will 'pay' for supplying drones to Ukraine, amid a recent drone attack on the Moscow region that left several wounded.
- Ukraine's energy company says its facilities were seriously damaged after 13 Russian strikes in a week.
- Russia received its first gasoline cargo from India as fuel shortages spread.
- Russia delivered humanitarian aid to Cuba amid an energy crisis.
- Ukraine launched a drone attack on the Moscow region, wounding several people.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Which leaders will leave office this year? — Ramzan Kadyrov | 11.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 23.5% | ▼ -3.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 19.5% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 14.5% | ▲ +1.5 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Global bond yields hit multi-decade highs as governments pay the price for U.S.-Iran stalemate.
- Brent oil prices rose above $91 after an unidentified projectile hit a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- U.S. stock futures extended losses amid rising Iran tensions and oil prices.
- Iran's Supreme Leader signaled an intention to keep the country on a war footing.
- Oil majors have reaped a $93 billion windfall from the Iran war.
The surge in oil prices and global bond yields is pressuring markets, with U.S. stock futures extending losses and the 30-year yield hitting its highest level in decades.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38.0% | ▼ -7.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | — |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 1.1% | ▲ +0.4 |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 10.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$772.62
-0.47% today
· -0.05% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$251.13
-0.84% today
· +0.06% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$593.92
-2.4% today
· -1.52% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$221.63
-0.6% today
· -1.13% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$405.46
+1.0% today
· +0.72% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$130.26
+2.87% today
· +3.42% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$25.05
+0.3% today
· +4.33% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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