How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Thursday, August 20, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Thursday, August 20, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
A Russian missile barrage across Ukraine's capital has killed at least 12 and wounded 33.
- A fire broke out at a Rosneft-owned refinery after a Ukrainian drone strike.
- Russia's fuel crisis has hit Moscow, with rationing spreading.
- Ukraine's ousted defense chief has called for wartime elections.
- Iran is reportedly weighing European strikes on US military targets if the US escalates the war.
Russia's fuel crisis and the resulting rationing in Moscow could lead to increased oil prices and disruptions in global energy markets.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Which leaders will leave office this year? — Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 11.0% | new |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 21.5% | — |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 17.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 43.5% | new |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
US President Trump announces 'most crushing economic operation ever' against Iran, escalating tensions.
- Oil prices rise to above $90 per barrel as Hormuz operations remain disrupted.
- UAE suspends trade with Iran after reported missile strikes.
- Israel strikes military airbase in Syria while warning Turkey against 'dangerous adventures' in Syria.
- China's largest oil shippers abandon Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.
Oil prices surge, potentially leading to a prolonged global fuel crisis and economic instability.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 40.0% | ▲ +2.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 95.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | — |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.9% | ▼ -0.1 |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | 4.5% | ▼ -0.5 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$769.09
+0.22% today
· -0.45% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$246.05
-2.39% today
· -2.19% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$589.3
-2.95% today
· -2.88% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$220.41
-2.25% today
· -1.04% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$413.83
+3.84% today
· +2.23% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$130.94
+0.22% today
· +2.87% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$25.32
+2.53% today
· +3.9% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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