▲ +42 pts
United States
Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)Answer: Above 2.7%
37%→80%
in 24 hours
September CPI rose 3.7% YoY, signaling hotter inflation.
Source: CNBC
Settles 2026-12-10
How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
What moved since yesterday
The biggest swings in what people betting real money expect — and the news behind them.
▼ −28 pts
United States
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?Answer: 4.0%
38%→10%
in 24 hours
Inflation heat prompted analysts to see a tighter Fed rate‑hike call.
Source: Reuters
Settles 2027-01-01
▲ +18 pts
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?Answer: SpaceX
42%→60%
in 24 hours
Bloomberg reports SpaceX IPO could push space investment over $100 billion, suggesting it will be the largest IPO.
Source: Bloomberg.com
Settles 2027-01-02
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Thursday, October 15, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Ukraine announces it will resume strikes on Russian oil refineries after a failed energy cease‑fire
- President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces will restart attacks on Russian refining capacity, citing the collapse of the cease‑fire and growing anger over U.S. political moves
- The decision follows a series of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy sites that left about 600,000 people without power
- Russia continues to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite Kyiv’s push for a truce, heightening the electricity shortage
- Oil traders lifted prices, citing tighter Russian diesel supplies and broader Middle‑East shipping risks after the renewed Ukrainian strikes
The renewed refinery attacks tighten global fuel supplies, nudging crude and diesel prices higher and adding volatility to markets already sensitive to Middle‑East tensions
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 17.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 9.5% | — |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 45.5% | ▼ -5.0 |
| Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? — Turkey | 27.0% | — |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
U.S. military is reviewing the possible use of the 'mother of all bombs' in future strikes against Iran.
- Electric vehicles saved the global economy about $20 billion in fuel costs amid the Hormuz oil crisis, though the benefit did not extend to the United States.
- BBC Verify found that hundreds of Israeli Defense Force investigations into killings have not resulted in public outcomes.
- Oil prices retreated as investors weighed supply outlook amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
The Hormuz‑linked oil volatility and EV‑driven fuel‑cost savings point to mixed market effects, with potential downward pressure on crude prices and increased interest in electric‑vehicle adoption.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38.0% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 84.5% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 50.5% | ▼ -4.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 62.5% | ▼ -1.5 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$769.65
-1.08% today
· -0.97% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$204.27
+0.09% today
· +0.31% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$522.1
+3.61% today
· +4.57% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$186.43
+1.86% today
· +3.41% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$375.97
-1.49% today
· +0.03% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$153.63
+0.36% today
· +6.74% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$24.4
+0.45% today
· -2.11% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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