How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Tuesday, August 11, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Russia says it hit military-related warehouses and steel works in overnight Ukraine strikes - Reuters
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
- Ukraine braces for winter power crisis after Russian strikes, Zelensky says - France 24
- Ukrainian drone attack on an oil hub deep inside Russia kills 13, officials say - AP News
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 30.0% | ▼ -4.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 21.5% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 24.5% | ▼ -3.0 |
| What countries will Marco Rubio visit this year? — Ukraine | 25.0% | — |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Iran has shifted its strategic focus to the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the Hormuz deadlock alive and pushing oil prices higher
- U.S. analysts say Iran’s priority has moved from nuclear weapons to asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz (NBC News)
- Oil prices rose sharply as hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal faded, reflecting market anxiety over a prolonged Hormuz closure (Yahoo Finance Singapore, OilPrice.com)
- China’s Teapot refiners are preparing to increase purchases of Iranian crude, signaling Tehran’s pivot to oil sales amid sanctions (OilPrice.com)
- European and Asian stock markets drifted lower as the Hormuz impasse weighed on investor sentiment (Investing.com, Reuters)
Rising oil prices and Hormuz uncertainty are boosting energy equities while keeping broader markets cautious about inflation and supply‑chain risks
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 50.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | 100.0% | ▲ +0.1 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | — |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 1.0% | ▼ -0.1 |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | 5.0% | ▲ +0.5 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$773.02
-0.02% today
· +2.02% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$250.97
+0.09% today
· +1.96% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$603.09
+2.58% today
· +2.91% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$224.16
+0.47% today
· +3.46% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$402.56
+1.03% today
· +8.31% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$125.95
+6.72% today
· +3.13% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$24.0
+0.38% today
· -1.07% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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