How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Friday, August 14, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Friday, August 14, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Ukrainian drones set a major Russian oil refinery ablaze deep inside Russia
- The strike ignited a large refinery located far from the front lines, according to PBS and Audacy reports
- Russia's diesel exports have slumped to a multiyear low amid a tight global market, as reported by OilPrice.com
- Russia has captured a record share of India's oil imports, signaling a shift in its export strategy
- Ukraine also hit Gazprom's 200,000‑bpd Salavat refinery in the Urals, halting its operations
Disruption to Russian refining and falling diesel exports tighten global fuel supplies, likely nudging crude and diesel prices higher while Russia leans on growing Indian demand to cushion revenue losses
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 25.5% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 20.5% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 22.5% | ▼ -2.0 |
| What countries will Marco Rubio visit this year? — Ukraine | 25.0% | — |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
U.S. pledges to maintain an indefinite naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, tightening a key oil chokepoint
- Crude prices climb, with weekly gains of about 4% and benchmarks hovering near $90 a barrel, eyes on $120 risk
- Tankers through Hormuz have sharply dropped as the standoff drags on
- Kuwait warns its oil sector faces its biggest crisis, its future now linked to the strait’s fate
- The Dow is set to open lower as the blockade threat pushes oil prices higher
Higher oil prices lift energy stocks but weigh on broader equity indices, keeping the market on edge
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 41.0% | ▼ -10.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | 98.9% | new |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | — |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.9% | ▲ +0.1 |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 11.0% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$777.84
+0.69% today
· +1.2% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$249.55
-0.8% today
· -0.16% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$598.29
-1.4% today
· +2.66% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$220.48
-1.01% today
· -1.28% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$398.94
-1.45% today
· +2.37% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$125.04
-1.77% today
· +5.2% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$24.33
-0.14% today
· +2.72% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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