How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Tuesday, August 25, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
European leaders gathered in Kyiv as Ukraine seeks more air defense support from its allies.
- Russian refineries have resumed operations, but the country is still struggling to restore fuel supplies.
- Russia's military has published a video of a drone strike on an unarmed cyclist in the Donetsk region.
- Ukraine is using deep-strike drones in its war effort, with Nvidia minicomputers powering Moscow's AI drones.
- Russia has struck Kyiv with ballistic missiles ahead of Ukraine's Independence Day celebrations.
The ongoing fuel crisis in Russia and Ukraine's air defense needs may impact crude oil prices in the coming days.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 23.5% | ▲ +2.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 15.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 11.5% | ▲ +3.0 |
| Who will Donald Trump talk to this month? — Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 29.0% | new |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
US prepares to send diplomats back to Middle East embassies after Iran war evacuations, NYT reports
- Israeli strikes hit water plant, warehouse in Gaza, killing at least seven
- China denounces 'economic wars' as US starts campaign to cut off Iran
- Gold price hits three-month high amid fears over Iran war and Trump economy
- TotalEnergies Backs Two Major Oil Pipelines to Bypass Hormuz
Oil prices continue to fall as investors shrug off latest US sanctions on Iran
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 34.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 97.2% | ▼ -0.1 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | — |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.4% | — |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 11.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$763.46
-0.28% today
· -1.19% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$233.36
-1.69% today
· -7.08% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$563.56
-0.02% today
· -5.11% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$209.26
-0.29% today
· -5.58% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$426.75
+0.8% today
· +5.25% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$132.19
-1.83% today
· +1.48% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$25.47
+0.16% today
· +1.7% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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