How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Saturday, August 29, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Saturday, August 29, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Russia Claims Strike on Ukrainian Shipment Terminal - The Moscow Times
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 28, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
- Drain on U.S. Munitions From Iran War Raises Fears Over Ability to Deter China, Russia - WSJ
- Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy orders military to triple daily long-range strikes on Russia - The Guardian
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 17.0% | ▼ -2.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 33.0% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 14.5% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 15.5% | ▼ -4.0 |
| Who will Donald Trump talk to this month? — Vladimir Putin | 16.0% | new |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Dire Strait: Why Economic Threats Might Escalate the War in Iran - Time Magazine
- Six months into the Iran war, Iranian Americans remain divided over what comes next - CNN
- Tensions Spike Between Turkey and Israel as They Vie for Regional Influence - The New York Times
- A week of Israeli settler violence in occupied West Bank - BBC
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 32.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 98.7% | ▲ +0.4 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.1% | ▼ -0.3 |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? — Djibouti | 12.0% | ▼ -2.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$769.28
-0.25% today
· +0.48% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$232.88
-0.58% today
· -1.9% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$563.95
-0.34% today
· +0.05% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$211.71
-0.19% today
· +0.87% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$408.84
-3.26% today
· -3.43% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$129.69
-0.23% today
· -3.68% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$28.0
+2.87% today
· +10.09% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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