How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Friday, September 25, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Friday, September 25, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Danish intelligence warns Russia could attack a NATO country within months.
- Russia says its strikes hit Ukrainian military-linked facilities and vessels.
- Russian strikes killed eight civilians in Ukraine as the UN debates how to end the war.
- Russia began exporting oil from its Arctic Vostok project.
- The United States invited President Putin to attend the G20 summit in Miami.
The start of Russian Arctic oil exports and mixed diplomatic signals could keep energy markets volatile and sustain a geopolitical risk premium.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 22.5% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13.5% | ▼ -3.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 39.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 5.8% | ▲ +2.4 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 6.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Brent Set for Weekly Gain as Houthi Attacks Rattle Saudi Oil Supply - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Hormuz Tanker Transits Crash to Single Digits as Crisis Deepens - oilprice.com
- 8 suicide attempts in USS Lincoln strike group during 9 months at sea in Iran war: Navy - WNWO
- Hormuz Tanker Transits Crash to Single Digits as Crisis Deepens - oilprice.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 37.0% | ▲ +4.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 95.4% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 84.5% | ▲ +0.5 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 69.5% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$767.29
-0.08% today
· +0.61% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$212.59
-0.62% today
· -0.57% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$523.85
-0.17% today
· -2.62% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$188.62
-1.89% today
· -2.52% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$391.65
-0.26% today
· -1.69% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$153.14
+2.89% today
· -1.44% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$25.57
-0.58% today
· -2.59% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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