How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Thursday, September 10, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Thursday, September 10, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Ukraine war briefing: Arctic attack extends Kyiv’s strike reach into Russian gas heartland - The Guardian
- Belarus Refineries Post Decade-High Profits Amid Russia's Fuel Crisis - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Ukraine Targets Russia's Key Black Sea Oil Port - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Chancellor Merz clashes with AfD’s Weidel over Russia, energy policy - Anadolu Ajansı
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 22.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 20.5% | ▲ +2.0 |
| What countries will Marco Rubio visit this year? — Ukraine | 29.0% | ▲ +5.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Iran war live: Multiple US military aircraft ‘damaged in overnight Iranian strikes’ - The Independent
- Trump says Iran war to end after US midterm elections, threatens to attack Pickaxe Mountain - Reuters
- 'Saved the day': How China helped keep the lid on oil price surge as Iran war disrupted supplies - CNBC
- US war against Iran enters new phase with strikes on oil tankers - World Socialist Web Site
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 30.0% | ▼ -4.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 85.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 75.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 64.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | 0.7% | ▼ -0.1 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$762.42
-0.47% today
· +0.1% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$219.37
-1.78% today
· -2.7% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$524.77
-2.15% today
· -3.61% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$197.57
-0.6% today
· -3.64% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$403.38
+0.92% today
· +1.67% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$149.96
+2.71% today
· +6.37% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$26.29
-2.45% today
· -6.17% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
Think the bettors have one of these lines wrong?
Call it on StakeDojo →
Free play-money, real odds, public record.