How war moves money.

Russia–Ukraine

Russia unleashed an all‑day bombing and drone assault on Kyiv while Zelensky urged the UN to tighten sanctions on Russian revenues.

• Russian drones struck Kyiv on Sep 23, part of a broader bombing campaign that lasted the whole day (Reuters, Politico).
• In a UN speech, President Zelensky called on world leaders to keep choking Russia’s revenue streams (The Guardian, Reuters).
• A senior NATO commander warned that Putin is becoming more cavalier and willing to take greater risks as the conflict drags on (PBS).
• European officials warned of rising Russian sabotage activity but said a NATO attack is not imminent (Reuters).

The intensified attacks and Zelensky’s push for tighter sanctions could further strain Russia’s financing and lift risk premiums on its bonds, while European energy markets may react to talks of an ‘energy truce.’

What the bettors say

Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran

Iran’s defiant stance keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, tightening global oil supplies

• Iran’s president told the UN he will not ‘bend the knee’ and will retain the country’s nuclear program despite U.S. threats
• Hormuz traffic is running about 80% below its 10‑day average, forcing Brent crude to hold above $102 a barrel
• Analysts argue China stands to gain the most from the Iran‑oil crisis as alternative supplies shift eastward
• India has lifted LPG output by nearly 20% and Southeast Asia continues building gas plants to offset the LNG shock

Tight oil flows keep Brent above $102, buoying energy prices and pressuring equity markets, while gold remains steady as investors watch China‑Iran ties.

What the bettors say

War on the tape

Real prices, close of last session.