Politics · Iran
Mojtaba Khamenei Rules Iran
Markets projected the new leader would hold the top position by year's end.
87% likely
Betting markets favored Mojtaba Khamenei to serve as Iran's leader. The alternative of no head of state was a minor outlier.
Bet: “Iran leader end of 2026?” → Mojtaba Khamenei 87%
Wars · Israel
Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds Through 2026
Markets expected the truce to remain intact until the end of the year.
64% likely
Betting markets favored the continuation of the Israel-Iran ceasefire. The likelihood of a collapse was priced lower by traders.
Bet: “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through Dec 31, 2026?” → Yes 64%
Money · United States
Fed Cuts No Rates in 2026
Markets expected the central bank to hold interest rates steady all year.
97% likely
Betting markets overwhelmingly favored zero rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. A single quarter-point cut was considered a slim possibility.
Bet: “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” → 0 (0 bps) 97%
Tech · AI & tech
Claude Tops AI Rankings for 2026
Markets projected Claude would be the leading artificial intelligence model.
74% likely
Betting markets favored Claude as the best AI model by year's end. ChatGPT was the primary challenger in the odds.
Bet: “Best AI at the end of 2026?” → Claude 74%
Politics · United States
Becerra Wins California Governorship
Markets heavily favored the Democrat to secure the state's top executive post.
95% likely
Betting markets overwhelmingly favored Xavier Becerra to win the California governor election. Steve Hilton trailed significantly in the projections.
Bet: “California Governor Election Winner” → Xavier Becerra 95%
Wars · Yemen
Bab el-Mandeb Strait Stays Open
Markets expected the critical shipping route to remain accessible through 2026.
80% likely
Betting markets favored the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remaining open. The chance of an effective closure was priced low.
Bet: “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by Dec 31, 2026?” → No 80%
Wars · China
No Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
Markets overwhelmingly expected peace to hold across the strait by year's end.
96% likely
Betting markets heavily favored no military invasion of Taiwan by China. The probability of conflict was considered negligible by traders.
Bet: “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?” → No 96%
Politics · Russia
No Zelenskyy-Putin Summit Before 2027
Markets expected the two leaders to avoid a face-to-face meeting this year.
92% likely
Betting markets favored no meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin before 2027. A U.S. venue was the only other significant option priced.
Bet: “Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?” → No meeting before 2027 92%
Politics · United States
Trump Does Not Acquire Greenland
Markets expected the U.S. president to forgo the territory purchase by 2027.
97% likely
Betting markets overwhelmingly favored no acquisition of Greenland by Trump. The chance of a deal was priced as extremely low.
Bet: “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” → No 97%
Money · AI & tech
Anthropic Goes Public by Year End
Markets expected the AI company to complete its initial public offering.
76% likely
Betting markets favored an Anthropic IPO by the end of 2026. The alternative of remaining private was less likely in the odds.
Bet: “Anthropic IPO by Dec 31, 2026?” → Yes 76%
Wars · Russia
No Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by 2026
Markets expected the conflict to continue without a formal peace agreement.
78% likely
Betting markets favored no ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The likelihood of a deal was priced lower by traders.
Bet: “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31, 2026?” → No 78%