How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Friday, September 11, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Friday, September 11, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
- Russian strikes kill 11 in Ukraine as Kyiv targets gas plants in Arctic - Al Jazeera
- Novy Urengoy: Ukraine’s Deepest Drone Strike of the War - MiGFlug
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 22.5% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13.0% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 14.5% | ▼ -6.0 |
| What countries will Marco Rubio visit this year? — Ukraine | 29.0% | — |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Israeli military insiders detail systemic Gaza killings in new documentary at Venice Film Festival - NBC News
- Live Updates: Latest from Israel, Iran, and the Middle East - jpost.com
- Trump declines Saudi crown prince's call for US strikes on Houthis, Axios reports - Reuters
- US military strikes five Iranian tankers - cnn.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 29.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 85.0% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 73.5% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 59.5% | ▼ -5.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | 0.8% | ▲ +0.1 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$757.87
-0.6% today
· -0.95% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$218.24
-0.52% today
· -2.25% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$530.06
+1.01% today
· -0.24% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$198.1
+0.27% today
· -1.33% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$396.38
-1.74% today
· -1.58% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$158.34
+5.59% today
· +12.17% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$26.7
+1.58% today
· -4.21% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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