How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Sunday, September 6, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Sunday, September 6, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Modern War: Ukraine, the Middle East and Imperatives for Modern Military Institutions - Futura Doctrina | Mick Ryan
- Russia stocks lower at close of trade; MOEX Russia Index unchanged - Investing.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 29.5% | ▼ -8.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 12.5% | ▼ -5.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 31.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 24.0% | ▲ +4.0 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 7.5% | ▼ -3.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Iran war latest: Iranian tanker sinks in Gulf of Oman after US strike, Centcom says - thenationalnews.com
- US-Iran war: U.S. military strikes three Iranian oil tankers - The Hindu
- US strikes Iran’s shadow fleet in dangerous war escalation - AFR
- US military strikes oil tankers as Iran vows tougher reprisals - Al-Monitor
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 34.0% | ▲ +2.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 86.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 73.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 61.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | 0.9% | new |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$770.18
-0.38% today
· +0.12% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$225.6
-0.12% today
· -3.13% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$525.29
-1.43% today
· -6.85% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$200.72
-0.68% today
· -5.19% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$406.78
-0.84% today
· -0.5% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$142
+0.01% today
· +9.49% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$26.47
-2.47% today
· -5.45% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
Think the bettors have one of these lines wrong?
Call it on StakeDojo →
Free play-money, real odds, public record.