How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Tuesday, September 15, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Ukraine War, Day 1,665: Zelensky Proposes Ceasefire on Infrastructure Strikes - EA WorldView
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
- Russian Strike on Train Station Near Ukraine-Poland Border Seen as Warning to Kyiv’s Allies - The New York Times
- Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Will Pause Strikes on Russia if Kremlin Spares Critical Infrastructure - Military.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 23.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 14.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 6.5% | — |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 9.0% | ▼ -0.5 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Houthi gains in Yemen, attack on Saudi pipeline compound pressure on oil markets - PBS
- Middle East live: Pentagon watchdog says Iran war has led to munitions shortfall - France 24
- Saudi Arabia shuts down a pipeline as Houthis seize an island, opening a new front in the Iran war - AP News
- US-Iran War Live Updates: Saudi Arabia issues emergency alerts across 4 cities as tensions escalate in Middle East - The Times of India
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 32.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 91.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 78.5% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 66.5% | ▲ +3.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$760.75
-0.44% today
· -1.22% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$216.67
-1.08% today
· -3.96% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$529.53
+1.0% today
· +0.81% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$195.36
-1.19% today
· -2.67% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$392.74
-1.48% today
· -3.45% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$156.63
+1.13% today
· +10.3% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$26.19
-0.34% today
· -1.06% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
Think the bettors have one of these lines wrong?
Call it on StakeDojo →
Free play-money, real odds, public record.