How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Saturday, September 12, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Saturday, September 12, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Putin, Xi and Iran's Pezeshkian descend on India for high-stakes BRICS summit amid escalating global tensions - Fox News
- Ukraine war briefing: Russian developers used AI to build ‘kamikaze’ attack drone software, Anthropic says - The Guardian
- Ukraine claims longest-range strike of war, deep inside Russian territory - FlightGlobal
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 22.5% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13.5% | ▲ +0.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 32.0% | ▼ -3.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 15.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? — Turkey | 55.0% | new |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Putin, Xi and Iran's Pezeshkian descend on India for high-stakes BRICS summit amid escalating global tensions - Fox News
- Iran-backed Houthi rebels open new front in Middle East conflict - news3lv.com
- Iran-backed Houthi rebels open new front in Middle East conflict - WTVC
- Iran-backed Houthi rebels open new front in Middle East conflict - WLOS
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 29.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 86.5% | ▲ +1.5 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 74.0% | ▲ +0.5 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 62.5% | ▲ +3.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$764.14
+0.83% today
· -1.16% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$219.04
+0.37% today
· -3.02% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$524.31
-1.08% today
· -1.61% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$197.72
-0.19% today
· -2.17% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$398.63
+0.57% today
· -2.83% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$154.88
-2.19% today
· +9.08% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$26.28
-1.59% today
· -3.17% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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