How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Monday, September 14, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Monday, September 14, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
- Watch: Why a Russian strike on train near Ukraine-Poland border could mark an escalation - BBC
- Ukraine war briefing: Poland calls for ‘double’ support to Kyiv after Russian train attack - The Guardian
- Russia stocks lower at close of trade; MOEX Russia Index down 1.21% - Investing.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 22.5% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 6.5% | ▼ -3.0 |
| Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? — Turkey | 55.0% | — |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- How the Iran War Forced the Gulf to Rethink Its Security - Time Magazine
- Iran says it destroys U.S. advanced drone over Hormuz as Middle East conflict intensifies - CNBC
- Middle East Oil Routes Under Pressure as Hormuz Traffic Tumbles - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Oil rises on Saudi pipeline attack, Hormuz supply risks - Anadolu Ajansı
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 31.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 92.5% | ▲ +3.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 78.5% | ▲ +4.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 63.5% | ▲ +0.5 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$764.14
+0.83% today
· -1.16% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$219.04
+0.37% today
· -3.02% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$524.31
-1.08% today
· -1.61% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$197.72
-0.19% today
· -2.17% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$398.63
+0.57% today
· -2.83% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$154.88
-2.19% today
· +9.08% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$26.28
-1.59% today
· -3.17% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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