How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Friday, September 18, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Friday, September 18, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Ukraine war briefing: Poland’s Tusk heads to Kyiv after warning of Russian strikes on Ukrainian allies - theguardian.com
- Russian Fuel Exports Rebound in August But Still Down 50% From Last Year - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Russia Cuts Off Gas to Armenia Days After Diversification Announcement - oilprice.com
- Congress Sends Sweeping Russia-Iran Sanctions Bill to Trump - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 22.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 14.5% | — |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 5.5% | — |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 7.0% | ▼ -2.5 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Hormuz Tanker Traffic Slumps as Saudi Arabia Scrambles for New Oil Routes - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Iran war live: Tanker hit in Hormuz, Trump weighs ‘big decision’ on Iran - Al Jazeera
- Lee rules out involvement in US-Iran conflict, says Seoul weighing possible moves - The Korea Herald
- Iran war live: Trump weighs ‘big decision’ after UN war crime report - The Independent
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 32.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 93.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | ▲ +2.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 81.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 66.5% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$762.64
+1.14% today
· +0.63% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$213.81
-0.69% today
· -2.03% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$537.93
+0.11% today
· +1.48% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$193.5
-1.71% today
· -2.32% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$398.38
+1.71% today
· +0.5% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$155.37
-0.54% today
· -1.88% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$26.25
-1.09% today
· -1.7% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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