How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Ukraine launched its largest ever drone raid, sending over 1,000 drones at Moscow
- Ukraine fired more than 1,000 drones at Russia, marking the biggest attack ever on Moscow
- Russia warned it will intensify strikes on Kyiv in response to the mass drone assault
- Poland began military aviation operations as Russian strikes continue against Ukraine
- A new U.S. sanctions law threatens India’s large Russian oil purchases, adding pressure on Russia’s oil revenue
The massive drone strike and looming U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tighten risk for energy markets, likely keeping crude prices volatile
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 20.5% | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13.5% | — |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 3.4% | ▼ -0.6 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 7.5% | ▲ +1.5 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warns it will ‘change the geography of war’ if the United States escalates the conflict
- US senior military leaders are split over launching strikes against Yemen’s Houthi forces, raising the prospect of a second front
- The G7 has publicly urged Iran to halt weapons shipments to the Houthis ahead of the UN General Assembly
- Houthi fighters are advancing in Yemen’s highlands, prompting President Trump to weigh and then pause potential strikes
- Iran has reportedly been informed of U.S. plans to resume military action, heightening regional tension
Oil prices slipped below $100 as traders priced in a possible diplomatic de‑escalation, while gold and silver premiums eased with the fading Hormuz risk premium.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 37.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 96.0% | ▲ +0.5 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 86.5% | ▲ +4.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 70.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.