How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Thursday, September 17, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Thursday, September 17, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
- India Pushes Back on U.S. Tariff Threat Over Russian Oil - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Inside Putin's $135 Billion Arctic Gamble That Could Save His Ukraine War - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Russian drone strike kills 5 and injures at least 7 on passenger bus in Ukraine - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 21.5% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 14.5% | — |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 5.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 9.5% | ▲ +1.5 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Trump says U.S. ‘hopefully’ nearing end of Iran war as Saudi Arabia-Houthis trade strikes - CNBC
- UN-backed experts cite possible US war crimes in Iran strike... - seMissourian
- UN mission finds grounds to believe US committed war crimes in Iran - The Jerusalem Post
- Live Updates: Latest from Israel, Iran, and the Middle East - The Jerusalem Post
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 32.0% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 92.5% | ▲ +6.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 1.0% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 80.5% | ▲ +5.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 66.5% | ▲ +3.5 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$754.05
-0.44% today
· -1.1% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$215.3
+0.56% today
· -1.86% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$537.32
+0.75% today
· +2.39% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$196.87
+0.71% today
· -0.36% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$391.68
-0.61% today
· -2.9% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$156.21
-3.51% today
· +4.17% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$26.54
+0.95% today
· +0.95% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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