How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
You're reading the Wednesday, September 9, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8, 2026 - understandingwar.org
- Zelenskyy says US envoys have ‘very good’ ideas to end Russia’s war on Ukraine - WTOP News
- Quantum Computing Stocks: IonQ Hosts Investor Day With SkyWater Deal In Focus - Investor's Business Daily
- Ukraine updates: Two killed in Kyiv as 3-day truce ends - dw.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 23.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 12.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 18.5% | ▼ -4.5 |
| What countries will Marco Rubio visit this year? — Ukraine | 24.0% | ▲ +4.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Oil price rises above $100 after US and Houthi strikes - The Times
- Oil jumps above $100 a barrel as US-Iran fighting raises Strait of Hormuz disruption fears - Business Insider
- US strikes Iranian oil tankers as Tehran targets American base in Jordan - BBC
- U.S. military says it destroyed 5 Iranian oil tankers after attacks on Navy warship - NPR
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 34.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 86.5% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 74.5% | ▼ -4.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 65.5% | ▲ +0.5 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | 0.8% | — |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$766.06
-0.53% today
· -0.11% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$223.34
-1.0% today
· -2.21% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$536.32
+2.1% today
· -4.44% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$198.76
-0.98% today
· -4.31% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$399.69
-1.74% today
· -2.16% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$146.01
+2.82% today
· +9.19% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$26.95
+1.81% today
· -3.02% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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