▲ +42 pts
United States
Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)Answer: Above 2.7%
37%→80%
in 24 hours
September CPI rose 3.7% YoY, signaling hotter inflation.
Source: CNBC
Settles 2026-12-10
Where the crowd changed its mind.
People bet real money on wars, leaders, the economy and tech. When their odds swing, something happened. Here are the biggest swings, with the news behind each one. We don't predict — we show you what moved.
▼ −28 pts
United States
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?Answer: 4.0%
38%→10%
in 24 hours
Inflation heat prompted analysts to see a tighter Fed rate‑hike call.
Source: Reuters
Settles 2027-01-01
▲ +18 pts
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?Answer: SpaceX
42%→60%
in 24 hours
Bloomberg reports SpaceX IPO could push space investment over $100 billion, suggesting it will be the largest IPO.
Source: Bloomberg.com
Settles 2027-01-02
▼ −22 pts
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?Answer: Gemini
39%→16%
in 24 hours
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2027-01-01
▼ −17 pts
Israel
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?Answer: 4
74%→56%
in 24 hours
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2027-01-01
▲ +19 pts
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?Answer: 1
42%→61%
in 24 hours
Unusual activity reported beneath Nicaragua’s Masaya Volcano suggests a potential large eruption.
Source: SciTechDaily
Settles 2027-04-01
▼ −19 pts
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?Answer: 5.80%
45%→26%
in 24 hours
Treasury yields plunged after a hot CPI print, lowering expectations for a 5.80% 30‑year rate.
Source: CNBC
Settles 2026-12-31
▼ −15 pts
United States
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?Answer: 8
65%→50%
in 24 hours
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2027-01-01
▼ −48 pts
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?Answer: 5.80%
75%→26%
in 7 days
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2026-12-31
▲ +36 pts
Romania
Next Prime Minister of Romania?Answer: Luca Niculescu
56%→92%
in 7 days
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2028-01-01
▲ +34 pts
China
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?Answer: Greater than 8
24%→58%
in 7 days
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2027-07-01
▲ +26 pts
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
64%→90%
in 7 days
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2027-01-01
▲ +28 pts
United States
Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)Answer: Above 2.7%
52%→80%
in 7 days
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2026-12-10
▼ −27 pts
Who will Bernie endorse?Answer: Alan Grayson - FL-Sen
56%→29%
in 7 days
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2026-11-04
▼ −20 pts
Venezuela
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by Dec 31, 2026?
55%→35%
in 7 days
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2026-12-31
▲ +22 pts
United States
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?Answer: 1-100
41%→63%
in 7 days
No clear trigger in the news we track — sometimes the money moves before the headlines do.
Settles 2027-01-01
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