How war moves money.
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You're reading the Sunday, October 11, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Sunday, October 11, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Trump struck a diesel deal with Putin and paused sanctions on Russia to lower fuel prices.
- Ukrainian officials said deadly Russian strikes were retaliation for the Trump‑Putin diesel deal.
- A Russian glide bomb hit Zaporizhzhia, killing at least 15 people.
- Russia’s central bank said Putin’s stock‑market target is now out of reach.
The diesel deal and sanction pause eased fuel‑price concerns, helping lift market sentiment and stocks.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 14.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 8.5% | — |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 34.0% | ▼ -7.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 56.5% | ▼ -8.0 |
| Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? — Turkey | 27.0% | ▼ -28.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- US forces disable ship ‘attempting to run’ Iran blockade in Gulf of Oman - Al Jazeera
- Iran Update, October 10, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
- US weighs strikes on Houthis and Iran after deadly Saudi airport attack - Iran International
- US military says it disabled cargo vessel trying to run Iran blockade - Reuters
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 42.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 85.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 57.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 64.0% | ▲ +0.5 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$778.51
+0.6% today
· +1.15% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$206.69
+0.87% today
· -0.53% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$509.68
+0.34% today
· +0.68% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$185.97
+0.91% today
· +0.72% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$384.59
+1.57% today
· +1.16% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$148.24
+0.4% today
· +0.57% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$24.44
-1.37% today
· -1.29% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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