How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
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Monday, October 12, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Trump declares an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, but Kyiv says Russian attacks on power plants continue
- The US announced it will buy Russian diesel, prompting diesel price slips in the US market
- Brent crude fell to about $104 a barrel as oil markets reacted to the ceasefire claim
- European stocks edged higher and Asian shares were mixed, reflecting softer crude prices
- The Guardian reported Russia striking multiple Ukrainian power plants despite the ceasefire claim
The ceasefire announcement lowered diesel prices, pushed Brent crude below $105, and gave a modest lift to equities in Europe and Asia
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 18.5% | ▲ +4.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 11.5% | ▲ +3.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 39.0% | ▲ +5.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 54.5% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 5.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Houthi missile strike on Riyadh airport kills 12, prompting Saudi vows of retaliation and raising US involvement risk
- Second Houthi attack on Riyadh airport in two days kills 12 and injures hundreds, the deadliest in a decade
- Iran denounced the US response as inadequate and warned of further strikes if the conflict escalates
- Two additional oil tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz, heightening shipping threats in the chokepoint
- US forces disabled a cargo vessel trying to run Iran's blockade in the Gulf of Oman and are weighing strikes on Houthis and Iran
Crude oil prices rose as tanker attacks near Hormuz tightened supply, while heightened geopolitical risk pressured equities and crypto markets
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 39.0% | ▼ -3.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 85.5% | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 2.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 57.0% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 63.5% | ▼ -0.5 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.