How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
India boosts Middle East oil imports while cutting Russian oil supplies.
- NATO condemned Moscow’s 'irresponsible nuclear rhetoric' as Russian strikes on Kyiv intensified.
- Russia warned the UK after a TV show simulated a strike on Kaliningrad.
- Netlist asked the U.S. to ban imports of Micron chips used in Google and Nvidia AI hardware.
- Russia tightened secrecy around its oil refining and export data.
Reduced Indian demand for Russian crude could weigh on oil prices and lower Russia’s export revenues.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 15.5% | ▼ -3.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 11.5% | — |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 42.0% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 0.2% | ▼ -0.6 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 5.0% | — |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Israeli strike wounds four, including a Lebanese soldier, in southern Lebanon.
- JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs gave conflicting estimates for oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran denied any involvement in an attack on a Saudi oil pipeline.
- Asian stock indexes rose overall even as worries about the Iran war persisted.
Oil prices are gaining support from Hormuz supply worries, while equity markets show resilience as Asian indexes rise despite the turmoil.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 39.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 97.5% | ▼ -1.4 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 80.5% | ▼ -4.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 65.5% | ▼ -2.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.