How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
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Friday, October 2, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia launched massive strikes on Ukraine's energy grid, causing widespread power cuts as winter approaches.
- Putin told military leaders to abandon rules of war, Zelenskyy said according to the Financial Times.
- Putin threatened to use 'all its arsenal' if there is a direct attack on the Russian Federation, Fortune reported.
- Ukraine persisted with strikes on Russian oil refineries despite opposition from Trump, The Guardian noted.
- Seoul warned of 'further action' if Ukraine does not apologise over a prisoner‑of‑war row, the BBC reported.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 15.5% | ▲ +3.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 11.5% | — |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 42.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 72.5% | ▲ +3.0 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 7.5% | ▲ +2.5 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
The United States is deploying a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East amid warnings of possible new strikes on Iran.
- The Trump administration has ordered about 2,000 Marines to be sent to the region, with reports of a supertanker struck in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Approximately 9,000 additional troops are being deployed to the Middle East following Trump’s warnings of Iran strikes.
- Oil flows have increased but Iran continues to menace the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple tankers hit by unknown projectiles.
- Iranian oil exports to China have fallen to 475,000 barrels per day, underscoring an emerging energy crisis.
Oil price forecasts are rising as the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists, pointing to potential market volatility.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 37.0% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 83.5% | ▲ +3.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 61.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 70.0% | ▲ +1.5 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.