How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
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Saturday, October 10, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Trump strikes a diesel deal with Putin and pauses sanctions to lower diesel prices.
- Russia and Germany agreed to add diesel supply as the fuel market scrambles for barrels.
- U.S. and Russia discussed reviving Russian gas sales to Europe.
- Russian oil supplies to India fell to 310,000 barrels per day.
The diesel deal and related supply moves could ease fuel price pressures and support energy‑sector stocks.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 15.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 8.5% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 41.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 64.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 6.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
President Trump reiterated that the United States will not strike Iran before the November midterm elections.
- Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport killed three Saudi nationals.
- Oil prices fell as Trump paused Iran attacks and China restarted fuel exports.
- European stocks closed higher after Trump said no Iran strikes before midterm elections.
- US EIA hiked oil price forecasts again as the Iran war drains global stockpile.
The pause in US Iran strikes and renewed Chinese fuel exports weighed on oil prices while lifting equity markets.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 42.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 86.5% | ▲ +6.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 56.5% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 63.5% | ▲ +2.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.