How war moves money.
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Sunday, October 4, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia launched strikes on Kyiv's bridges, threatening a vital supply lifeline for the city.
- Ukrainian forces struck a drone launch site in Donetsk region and military targets in Russia's Belgorod region.
- Russian forces hit a major pharmaceutical distributor's warehouse near Kyiv for the fifth time in a month.
- Ukraine attacked a key Russian refinery and oil pipeline hub.
- Reciprocal strikes hit oil facilities and infrastructure on both sides.
Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and Ukrainian supply lines raise concerns about regional energy volatility and potential price swings.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 15.5% | ▲ +1.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 10.5% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 42.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 59.5% | ▼ -2.0 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 7.0% | — |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Houthis claim strike on Aramco site as Yemen fighting intensifies - Al Jazeera
- US military buildup: What message is it sending Iran? - dw.com
- The Iran War Is Showing What ADNOC's AI Can Really Do - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
- Iran Is Losing Some of Its Leverage Over the Strait of Hormuz - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 40.0% | ▲ +3.0 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 83.5% | ▲ +2.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 61.0% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 70.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.