How war moves money.
Every day, in 2 minutes: what happened in the world's two hot wars — and what the betting markets and the stock market did about it. Auto-written from live wires and live prices. No opinions, no doomscrolling.
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Monday, September 28, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Ukraine struck a Russian plant linked to Kh-101 and Oreshnik missile production, satellite images show damage.
- Russian state media threatened Lithuania with a nuclear strike.
- Russian strikes killed eight and injured dozens across Ukraine.
- Russia says it struck military infrastructure and vessels in Ukraine.
- Russia revived a secret nuclear bunker built to launch a retaliatory strike.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 20.5% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13.5% | — |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 47.0% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 2.6% | ▼ -1.1 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 4.5% | ▼ -2.0 |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Brent crude jumps 3% above $107 a barrel as US‑Iran tensions keep the Hormuz Strait closed.
- Indian shares slip to near six‑month lows as climbing oil prices weigh on the market.
- U.S. stock futures decline amid Iran tensions and news of an OpenAI training halt.
- Trump rejects an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying oil will fall only if Iran capitulates.
- Iran’s foreign minister says only negotiation can end the conflict after the U.S. turned down the Hormuz deal.
Rising oil costs are dragging down equities and fuelling inflation worries, prompting investors to seek safer assets.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 41.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 97.9% | ▲ +0.2 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 2.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 85.0% | ▲ +1.5 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 66.5% | ▲ +2.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.