How war moves money.
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Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders weighed Middle East risks against prospects of increased Russian diesel supplies.
- The IMF warned that Russia's war and the Middle East crisis threaten Europe's growth.
- Trump said the energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine holds, while Ukraine reported new Russian strikes.
- Russian drone strikes on Kyiv killed a woman and injured 14 people.
- House Republicans moved to block Trump's deal to buy Russian diesel.
The drop in oil prices, driven by expectations of higher Russian diesel supplies, may reduce energy costs for markets and keep bond yields from rising.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 15.5% | ▼ -3.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 12.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35.0% | ▼ -4.0 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 53.0% | ▼ -1.5 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 5.0% | — |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Houthi missile strikes on Riyadh's airport killed 12 people, marking the deadliest attack on Saudi Arabia in a decade and triggering a spike in global oil prices.
- Saudi minister vowed a 'serious response' to the Houthi attacks on airports.
- Goldman Sachs raised its December oil price target to $90, citing significant risk from the Iran war.
- Two more oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz.
- Pakistan pledged full military backing to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca pact after the deadly Houthi strikes.
The oil price surge toward $90 a barrel raises inflation concerns and boosts earnings prospects for energy companies.
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 85.5% | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | ▲ +2.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 56.5% | ▼ -0.5 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 64.5% | ▲ +1.0 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.