How war moves money.
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You're reading the Thursday, October 1, 2026 issue — jump to today's.
Thursday, October 1, 2026
Russia–Ukraine
Russia–Ukraine: wire summary unavailable today.
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
- Ukraine war briefing: Russia pounds power grid with seven killed in biggest energy attack in months - The Guardian
- Putin shows no sign of stopping the war as Russia doubles down on Ukraine - BBC
- Can Quantum Computing Tame AI's Energy Appetite - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 12.5% | ▼ -3.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 11.5% | — |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 42.0% | — |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 69.5% | ▲ +17.5 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 5.0% | — |
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran
Middle East — Israel · Hezbollah · Iran: wire summary unavailable today.
- Oil Price Forecasts Jump as Hormuz Disruption Drags On - Yahoo Finance
- IDF's Official Reaction to NAZA: Film Distorts Military Strike Planning Process - Haaretz
- Iran-US war latest: Trump says decision coming very soon on whether to ‘blow up’ Tehran - The Independent
- Navy sends Roosevelt to Middle East amid continuing Iran war - stripes.com
What the bettors say
| The line | Yes | vs yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 | 39.0% | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 2.0% | ▼ -1.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 80.5% | — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 62.5% | ▼ -3.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 68.5% | ▼ -6.5 |
War on the tape
Real prices, close of last session.
SPY · S&P 500
$762.34
-0.27% today
· -0.73% / 5d
The whole US market — does the war move it at all?
ITA · Defense ETF
$207.16
-1.02% today
· -3.16% / 5d
Basket of US defense contractors.
LMT · Lockheed
$509.25
-0.6% today
· -2.95% / 5d
Missiles, F-35s, air defense.
RTX · RTX
$185.73
-0.69% today
· -3.39% / 5d
Patriot batteries and interceptors.
GLD · Gold
$380.89
-0.54% today
· -3.0% / 5d
The classic fear trade.
USO · Oil
$145.67
+1.61% today
· -2.13% / 5d
Supply risk — Hormuz, Russian crude.
WEAT · Wheat
$24.57
-1.92% today
· -4.47% / 5d
Black Sea grain corridors.
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